Who Will Choose the Next Dalai Lama? China, the Golden Urn, and the Battle for Tibet’s Spiritual Future

The future of Tibetan spiritual leadership is under global scrutiny, centered around a centuries-old ritual: the Golden Urn method. At the heart of this debate is the succession of the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, who has made it clear—his reincarnation will not be controlled by China.

China’s Stance on Reincarnation

Chinese authorities insist that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, Panchen Lama, and other top lamas must be approved by Beijing and decided through the Golden Urn—a method introduced by the Qing dynasty in 1792 to control religious succession in Tibet.

“The reincarnation must be chosen by drawing lots from the Golden Urn and approved by the central government,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

What Is the Golden Urn Method?

Established by the Qing dynasty, the urn process involves writing names of potential reincarnated lamas on lots, which are then drawn in a ritual. One urn is in Lhasa (for the Dalai and Panchen Lamas) and another in Beijing (for Mongolian Lamas).

Dalai Lama Rejects Beijing’s Authority

The Dalai Lama has rejected the urn tradition, calling it a political imposition lacking spiritual legitimacy. In a 2011 statement, he clarified that his reincarnation will be determined by the Gaden Phodrang Trust, not China.

“Only one Dalai Lama was ever publicly recognized through the urn—and even that was largely ceremonial,” his statement notes.

He adds that the method was introduced under military and political pressure after Tibet sought Qing assistance against the Gurkhas in the late 1700s.

The Reincarnation Process in Tibetan Buddhism

Tibetan Buddhists believe that lamas can choose their next birth. The current Dalai Lama was identified in 1940 without the urn method, based on spiritual signs and traditional practices. China annexed Tibet fully in 1959, prompting the Dalai Lama to flee to India, where he still leads the Tibetan government-in-exile from Dharamshala.

What Lies Ahead?

A dual succession seems imminent. China is expected to appoint a state-backed Dalai Lama using the Golden Urn, while the Tibetan community, led by the current Dalai Lama, will recognize a spiritual successor based on tradition.

This standoff not only deepens the China-Tibet conflict but could also pull India—home to the exiled Tibetan leader—further into the geopolitical dispute.