China’s CPEC Expansion to Afghanistan: Implications for India and Regional Geopolitics

 Why Is This Newsworthy ?

China recently hosted a trilateral dialogue with Pakistan and Afghanistan, during which all parties agreed to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan. This move marks a significant shift in regional geopolitics and has far-reaching implications for connectivity, security, and diplomacy in Asia.

What Is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ?

Launched in 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a strategic part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It aims to connect China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port through a 3,000 km-long infrastructure network.

Key Components :

• Highways and Railways
• Power Plants and Energy Grids
• Special Economic Zones
• Fiber Optic Connectivity

With a total investment of $62 billion, CPEC is designed to accelerate regional trade, energy access, and economic integration. Nearly $34 billion is earmarked for energy projects alone.

Why Is China Extending CPEC to Afghanistan ?

1. Bridge Between Central and South Asia

Connecting Afghanistan would give China direct overland access between Central Asia and South Asia, transforming trade routes and boosting China’s influence as a regional connector.

2. Strategic Depth and Stability

Afghanistan’s instability poses risks to China’s western region. Integrating Afghanistan into CPEC may foster economic development, reduce extremism, and enhance regional security through growth.

3. Xinjiang Security Concerns

China seeks to stabilize Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uyghur population, by promoting development in bordering nations like Afghanistan to counter radicalism.

4. Access to Untapped Resources

Afghanistan’s vast mineral and energy reserves remain largely unexploited. CPEC’s extension would grant cheaper and faster access to these critical resources.

5. Strengthening the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

This move reinforces BRI as a trans-Asian infrastructure and development project, aligning with China’s goal of becoming a global economic leader.

 India’s Concerns Regarding CPEC Expansion

1. Violation of Sovereignty

CPEC passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which India considers its territory. The project is viewed as a direct threat to India’s territorial integrity.

2. Geopolitical Challenge

China’s presence in Gwadar Port is seen as part of the “String of Pearls” strategy, posing a strategic naval threat to India in the Arabian Sea.

3. Diminishing Influence in Afghanistan

India’s diplomatic outreach to the Taliban regime post-2021 may be overshadowed by the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan axis.

4. Terrorism and Security Risks

Afghanistan has previously harbored anti-India terrorist groups. A stronger China-Pakistan-Afghanistan collaboration may embolden hostile elements against India.

 India’s Strategic Responses

 Development of Chabahar Port

In collaboration with Iran, India is operating Chabahar Port, offering direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia without relying on Pakistani routes.

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

India is leveraging INSTC to connect with Central Asia and Russia, bypassing geopolitical friction points.

 India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

IMEC boosts India’s connectivity with Europe and the Middle East, enhancing supply chains and reducing Chinese dominance.

 Diplomatic Outreach in South Asia

India is strengthening ties with neighboring countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, enhancing its regional footprint.

 Cultural Connectivity Projects

Initiatives like the Cotton Route and Project Mausam aim to revive ancient trade routes and maritime heritage, reinforcing India’s soft power.

 The Road Ahead for India

India faces a dynamic geopolitical landscape shaped by new alliances and infrastructure strategies. To safeguard its interests, India must:

• Deepen partnerships in Central and South Asia.
• Invest in Chabahar Port and related logistics infrastructure.
• Strengthen multilateral engagements through SCO, INSTC, and IMEC.
• Promote balanced diplomacy, combining economic cooperation with strategic foresight.